MV Hondius Andes Virus Dashboard v9 — contact and unknown-case stress model
This version fixes the misleading controlled-case curve. The green curve now means additional infections arising within traced/controlled contacts, not total declared cases. The dashboard also rejects broad unrelated hantavirus numbers that can falsely inflate the auto-scan.
New in v9: 12-month projection · peak-death / top-of-wave readout · stricter MV Hondius parser · mobile-first layout
Correction: if the auto-scan ever produced 229 cases / 59 deaths, that was almost certainly a parser false-positive from broad hantavirus text, not a reliable MV Hondius declared count. v9 uses a new storage key and stricter source extraction, so it starts from the defensible 11 cases / 3 deaths anchor unless a source explicitly updates the MV Hondius outbreak.
Declared positive cases
11
latest reliable extracted / entered
Declared deaths
3
reported mortality signal
Declared contact universe
181
147 onboard + 34 prior disembarks
Declared quarantine/monitoring
147+
derived minimum baseline
Estimated hidden contacts
—
missed-contact pathways
Additional unknown infections
—
hidden contacts × activation × SAR
12-month worst deaths
—
top of cumulative mortality wave
Auto-update public scan
Scans official pages and news/RSS. Stricter v8 parser only accepts MV Hondius / cruise-linked context.
20 min / 24 h / 2 mo
Ready. A 20-minute scan can only find sources that updated in that window; the 2-month scan is better for quarantine/contact history.
Manual update / number correction
Use this when a reliable source gives confirmed cases, deaths, contacts or quarantine.
12-month projection: declared control vs existing unknown cases
Green is not total official cases; it is incremental infections from declared/traced contacts. Blue is declared positives.
all cases
The red band is generated from missed-contact pathways, activation rate, secondary attack-rate stress and long-incubation amplification.
12-month death projection — top of wave
Deaths remain lagged because infections detected later can die weeks after exposure.
mortality tail
Stress controls
Move sliders; both case and death curves update immediately.
Reviewed number logic
Why the previous green curve looked too high
What was wrong: Earlier versions added declared positive cases to the green controlled-contact curve. If the scan falsely raised declared cases to 229, the green line started around 229 and looked like controlled infections were already huge.
v9 fix: declared cases are now a separate blue curve. The green curve only shows incremental infections expected from the traced/declared contact universe. Old cached 229/59 values are not loaded.
Parser fix: the backend ignores numbers unless they appear in sentences tied to MV Hondius, the cruise outbreak, Andes virus contacts, passengers/crew, quarantine/monitoring, or the recognised onboard/disembarkation context.
Missed-contact pathways
How missing contact groups can enlarge the worst-realistic scenario