MV Hondius Andes Virus Dashboard — reality tracker vs 4 scenarios
This version fixes the scale problem by separating absolute, log, indexed-to-peak, and selected-scenario views. It tracks observed reality against four scenarios over a full two-year period and keeps the auto-update backend endpoint.
Default view is indexed to peak so the extreme scenario does not hide the other scenarios.
scale-safe
Scenario probabilities
Planning priors and reality-updated matching. Extreme scenario is intentionally low-probability, high-impact.
probability
Clear interpretation: the red extreme curve is a stress test for missed containment and sustained human-to-human chains. It is not the central forecast. The dashboard keeps it visible because it defines the planning ceiling.
Reality tracking: the latest declared case/death point is compared against each scenario at the same date. If official counts rise faster than the lower scenarios, the posterior match automatically shifts upward.
Mortality pace: new deaths per 2-week period
Shows the top of the wave. This is the “peace/pace” signal missing from cumulative-only views.
peak deaths
2-year cumulative deaths
Cumulative tail over two years; separate from peak pace.
2 years
Reality vs four scenarios over two years
Blue dots are actual declared data. Scenario bands are calculated from the current settings.
auto-tracker
Model controls
These parameters control missed contacts, long incubation amplification, CFR and the extreme out-of-control H2H wave.
interactive
Auto-update public scan
Calls the deployed Cloudflare backend and updates actual declared cases/deaths/contacts/quarantine when extracted.
/api/latest
Ready. On localhost this may fail; on Cloudflare it uses the included Worker.
No scan yet.
Important: the worker is deliberately conservative. It should not overwrite the dashboard with broad unrelated hantavirus numbers unless they appear in MV Hondius / Andes-virus cruise context.
Peak scenario table
Readable numbers for all four scenarios.
Actual update log
Stored locally in your browser. Auto-scan adds/updates points.
Why the scale problem is solved
One scenario should not visually erase the others.
Indexed-to-peak view Each scenario is scaled to 100% of its own peak. This shows wave timing and shape, even when absolute magnitudes differ by orders of magnitude.
Log view Absolute values stay visible without the extreme scenario flattening the lower scenarios against the x-axis.
Selected-scenario view When you need the true peak value for one scenario, isolate it and read the peak box/table.