v18.5 · Share-safe News Containment Tracker · Hidden Case Detector
MV Hondius Andes Virus Dashboard — Reality vs Scenarios + Hidden Case Detection
v18.5 keeps the news-driven containment tracker, but packages it as a safer public demo: clearer disclaimer, share-source links, privacy-friendly analytics readiness, and less public API debug exposure.
For science communication and scenario exploration only. Not medical advice, not an official outbreak forecast, and not affiliated with public-health authorities or the vessel operator.
Share-safe public demo mode
Current source tag: direct. Use tagged links to see which channel works once Cloudflare Web Analytics is enabled.
🎯 Reality Tracker — where the actual outbreak sits right now
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Latest actual cases
11
Baseline · 13 May 2026
Latest actual deaths
3
CFR ≈ 27%
Closest scenario today
—
based on fitness score
Days since baseline
0
incubation window still open
Next data check due
Today
scan or log an update
🕵️ Hidden Case & Containment Detector — are unknown chains spreading?
Estimates undetected cases from surveillance signals. Tells you when the outbreak risks tipping out of control.
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📰 Automatic containment score from latest news
Not refreshed yet. Uses official pages + public news feeds when deployed.
Andes infectious window ~7–14d. >3d = leakage to community.
147+ in quarantine. Below 80% reporting = symptoms missed.
Direct evidence of hidden chains. Each one = at least 1 missed line.
Estimated hidden cases & risk
Estimated hidden cases
—
range based on signals
Effective R (hidden chains)
—
need R<1 to contain
Out-of-control probability
—
based on signals
Days to threshold
—
to 50+ active cases
Containment ladder — where you sit right now
How the math works: Detection rate = base 30% + 50% × (% in contact list) + adjustments for isolation speed, testing intensity, and geographic dispersion. R_effective = 2.12 × (1 − detection). Hidden cases ≈ known cases × ((100 − %-in-contact-list) / %-in-contact-list) × incubation-lag factor, with corrections for direct evidence of outside-list cases. Out-of-control probability is a sigmoid combining R_effective and hidden case count. "Out of control" threshold = 50 active cases (the point where simple tracing typically fails for Andes virus).
🔵 Real data vs the four scenarios — main comparison view
Large blue dots = actual declared data. Coloured lines = scenario predictions over 2 years. Vertical dashed line = today.
hero chart
How to read this: Blue dots are real-world declared cases/deaths. If they sit on or near the green line, the outbreak is tracking contained. If they rise faster and approach the amber/purple lines, hidden chains or missed containment is becoming more likely. The red line is a stress-test upper pathway, not a forecast. Cumulative curves should only rise or flatten; use the pace charts to detect true new waves. Late artificial terminal spikes were removed in v18.2; v18.3 removed visible hard caps by replacing them with smooth soft-saturation; v18.5 adds news-driven containment scoring.
📊 Scenario tracking — how each pathway compares to today's reality
For each scenario: what it predicts today, what reality says, the gap, and a fitness score (higher = better match).
side-by-side
Declared positive cases
11
latest extracted / entered
Declared deaths
3
reported mortality signal
Declared contacts universe
181
147 onboard + 34 prior disembarks
Declared quarantine / monitoring
147+
derived minimum; never forced to 0
Peak new deaths / fortnight
—
extreme H2H peak pace
2-year extreme deaths
—
stress test, not forecast
Argentina 2018–19 calibration anchor: Epuyén Andes-virus outbreak
The model is calibrated to a real human-to-human Andes-virus event, not an arbitrary curve.
calibration
Calibration variable
Epuyén 2018–19
How it is used here
Confirmed infections
34
Contained-outbreak final size after strong public-health action.
Deaths
11 → CFR ≈ 32%
Sets the fatality anchor; sliders remain adjustable.
Contacts quarantined
142
~4.2 quarantined contacts per final case (~7.9 at the 18-case trigger).
Pre-control R (serial)
2.12
Missed-containment / extreme H2H growth anchor.
Post-control R (serial)
0.96
Post-intervention decay anchor.
Control trigger
18 cases
Separates controlled response from delayed-recognition.
How to read it: solid lines are reported Epuyén anchors; dashed lines are the fitted base-case calibration.
📈 New infections / fortnight — with actual data overlay
Blue dots = actual increment between consecutive reports. Lines = scenarios.
scale-safe
Scenario probabilities
Epuyén-calibrated planning priors, setting-adjusted priors, visible-data match, and guarded posterior.
probability
Note: the red extreme curve is a stress test, not a central forecast. v18.3+ uses a soft-saturation mechanism, so incident curves bend smoothly instead of hitting a fixed numerical roof. v18.5 adds the news-driven containment score.
Mortality pace: new deaths / fortnight
Peak-pace view with actual death increments overlaid.
peak deaths
2-year cumulative deaths
Cumulative tail; actual deaths overlaid in blue.
2 years
Model controls
Adjust contact tracing intensity, CFR, R_t, and missed-start duration.
interactive
🔄 Auto-update public scan
Calls the deployed Cloudflare backend and updates actuals when extracted with high confidence.
/api/latest
Ready. When deployed, uses same-origin /api/latest.
Readable peak numbers for all four scenarios. v18.5 peaks are soft-saturated, not clipped at a fixed roof; containment inputs can be refreshed from news.
📝 Actual update log
Stored locally in your browser. Auto-scan or manual entry updates here.
Scenario definitions — what each pathway means
Clear epidemiological interpretation of the four modelled outcomes.
🟢 Controlled / traced
Epuyén-like rapid response. Effective contact tracing + isolation. R ≈ 0.6–0.9. Peak ≤ 12 cases. Wave fades within 8 fortnights.
🟠 Hidden clusters
Several small Epuyén-shaped microclusters from missed contacts. R ≈ 1.2. Peaks at 20–60 cases across 6–8 months, no sustained epidemic.
🟣 Missed containment
Delayed recognition (>18 cases before response). R = 2.12 for several serial intervals, then sharp bend post-intervention. Peaks 100s–1000s.
🔴 Extreme out-of-control H2H
Stress-test upper pathway. Multiple chains stay above R = 1 for the missed-start window. Soft-saturation bends growth progressively; no fixed numerical roof is imposed. Planning purpose only.