MV Hondius Andes Virus Dashboard — Reality vs Scenarios + Hidden Case Detection
v18.4 adds a News-driven Containment Tracker: estimates undetected cases from surveillance signals and tells you whether the outbreak risks tipping out of control. Combined with the Reality Tracker, you can see what's known, what's likely hidden, and which scenario the real outbreak is following.
Andes infectious window ~7–14d. >3d = leakage to community.
147+ in quarantine. Below 80% reporting = symptoms missed.
Direct evidence of hidden chains. Each one = at least 1 missed line.
Estimated hidden cases & risk
Estimated hidden cases
—
range based on signals
Effective R (hidden chains)
—
need R<1 to contain
Out-of-control probability
—
based on signals
Days to threshold
—
to 50+ active cases
Containment ladder — where you sit right now
How the math works: Detection rate = base 30% + 50% × (% in contact list) + adjustments for isolation speed, testing intensity, and geographic dispersion. R_effective = 2.12 × (1 − detection). Hidden cases ≈ known cases × ((100 − %-in-contact-list) / %-in-contact-list) × incubation-lag factor, with corrections for direct evidence of outside-list cases. Out-of-control probability is a sigmoid combining R_effective and hidden case count. "Out of control" threshold = 50 active cases (the point where simple tracing typically fails for Andes virus).
🔵 Real data vs the four scenarios — main comparison view
Large blue dots = actual declared data. Coloured lines = scenario predictions over 2 years. Vertical dashed line = today.
hero chart
How to read this: Blue dots are real-world declared cases/deaths. If they sit on or near the green line, the outbreak is tracking contained. If they rise faster and approach the amber/purple lines, hidden chains or missed containment is becoming more likely. The red line is a stress-test upper pathway, not a forecast. Cumulative curves should only rise or flatten; use the pace charts to detect true new waves. Late artificial terminal spikes were removed in v18.2; v18.3 removed visible hard caps by replacing them with smooth soft-saturation; v18.4 adds news-driven containment scoring.
📊 Scenario tracking — how each pathway compares to today's reality
For each scenario: what it predicts today, what reality says, the gap, and a fitness score (higher = better match).
side-by-side
Declared positive cases
11
latest extracted / entered
Declared deaths
3
reported mortality signal
Declared contacts universe
181
147 onboard + 34 prior disembarks
Declared quarantine / monitoring
147+
derived minimum; never forced to 0
Peak new deaths / fortnight
—
extreme H2H peak pace
2-year extreme deaths
—
stress test, not forecast
Argentina 2018–19 calibration anchor: Epuyén Andes-virus outbreak
The model is calibrated to a real human-to-human Andes-virus event, not an arbitrary curve.
calibration
Calibration variable
Epuyén 2018–19
How it is used here
Confirmed infections
34
Contained-outbreak final size after strong public-health action.
Deaths
11 → CFR ≈ 32%
Sets the fatality anchor; sliders remain adjustable.
Contacts quarantined
142
~4.2 quarantined contacts per final case (~7.9 at the 18-case trigger).
Pre-control R (serial)
2.12
Missed-containment / extreme H2H growth anchor.
Post-control R (serial)
0.96
Post-intervention decay anchor.
Control trigger
18 cases
Separates controlled response from delayed-recognition.
How to read it: solid lines are reported Epuyén anchors; dashed lines are the fitted base-case calibration.
📈 New infections / fortnight — with actual data overlay
Blue dots = actual increment between consecutive reports. Lines = scenarios.
scale-safe
Scenario probabilities
Epuyén-calibrated planning priors, setting-adjusted priors, visible-data match, and guarded posterior.
probability
Note: the red extreme curve is a stress test, not a central forecast. v18.3+ uses a soft-saturation mechanism, so incident curves bend smoothly instead of hitting a fixed numerical roof. v18.4 adds the news-driven containment score.
Mortality pace: new deaths / fortnight
Peak-pace view with actual death increments overlaid.
peak deaths
2-year cumulative deaths
Cumulative tail; actual deaths overlaid in blue.
2 years
Model controls
Adjust contact tracing intensity, CFR, R_t, and missed-start duration.
interactive
🔄 Auto-update public scan
Calls the deployed Cloudflare backend and updates actuals when extracted with high confidence.
/api/latest
Ready. When deployed, uses same-origin /api/latest.
Readable peak numbers for all four scenarios. v18.4 peaks are soft-saturated, not clipped at a fixed roof; containment inputs can be refreshed from news.
📝 Actual update log
Stored locally in your browser. Auto-scan or manual entry updates here.
Scenario definitions — what each pathway means
Clear epidemiological interpretation of the four modelled outcomes.
🟢 Controlled / traced
Epuyén-like rapid response. Effective contact tracing + isolation. R ≈ 0.6–0.9. Peak ≤ 12 cases. Wave fades within 8 fortnights.
🟠 Hidden clusters
Several small Epuyén-shaped microclusters from missed contacts. R ≈ 1.2. Peaks at 20–60 cases across 6–8 months, no sustained epidemic.
🟣 Missed containment
Delayed recognition (>18 cases before response). R = 2.12 for several serial intervals, then sharp bend post-intervention. Peaks 100s–1000s.
🔴 Extreme out-of-control H2H
Stress-test upper pathway. Multiple chains stay above R = 1 for the missed-start window. Soft-saturation bends growth progressively; no fixed numerical roof is imposed. Planning purpose only.