This version calibrates the epidemic-wave engine on the 2018–19 Epuyén, Argentina Andes-virus outbreak and explicitly accounts for the long incubation window. v17 also removes the artificial late-tail ripple that could create a small March bump after the wave should be decaying, and it adds a probability audit so the scenario weights are easier to understand.
| Calibration variable | Epuyén 2018–19 value | How it is used here |
|---|---|---|
| Confirmed infections | 34 | Defines an observed contained-outbreak final size after strong public-health action. |
| Deaths | 11 → CFR ≈ 32% | Sets the stress-test fatality anchor; dashboard CFR sliders remain adjustable. |
| Contacts quarantined | 142 | Provides a contact-tracing intensity benchmark: ~4.2 quarantined contacts per final case, or ~7.9 per case at the 18-case intervention point. |
| Pre-control reproductive number | R ≈ 2.12 | Used as the missed-containment / extreme H2H growth anchor before control measures bite. |
| Post-control reproductive number | R ≈ 0.96 | Used as the post-intervention decay anchor once isolation/quarantine becomes effective. |
| Control trigger | 18 confirmed cases | Separates a controlled Epuyén-like response from delayed-recognition scenarios. |
| Missed exposure window | What could be missed | When it can become visible |
|---|---|---|
| Index/prodromal period around early April | Close cabin, caregiver, shared-room, cleaning/laundry and medical contacts before risk was fully recognised. | Mid-April to early June under a 1–8 week symptom window. |
| Ship disembarkation and repatriation | Airport, transport, flight, hotel, port, baggage, and household contacts not in the formal contact list. | May to late June, especially if cases are mild at first. |
| Healthcare contacts before ANDV suspicion | HCWs, specimen handling, waste/laundry, and family contacts of exposed staff. | May to July if secondary chains begin before isolation. |
| Hidden tertiary chains | People infected by a missed mild or late-recognised case, rather than directly by a ship passenger. | June onward; this is the branch that feeds the missed-containment scenario. |
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