MV Hondius Andes Virus — Reality vs 4 Scenario Tracker
Clean version: four scenarios only, no artificial end-of-curve peaks, direct comparison against real declared data, and probability updates as new case/death/contact data are entered or scanned.
Planning priors are adjusted by risk settings, then softly updated against visible case/death data. Early low visible counts do not fully exclude hidden-chain scenarios.
4 scenarios only
Declared cases vs scenarios
Default is log scale so the extreme scenario does not hide the controlled scenarios. Use the buttons to switch view.
Current comparison table
Real latest data compared with each scenario on the same date
Important: scenario probabilities should move slowly during the incubation/retrace window. A low declared count today is useful evidence, but it is not proof that all hidden contacts have been eliminated.
Declared deaths vs scenarios
Cumulative death comparison using the same four scenarios.
Probability history
Posterior probability evolution as real observations are added.
New infections per fortnight
This shows the epidemic pace and peak. No end-of-curve bump: each scenario is a smooth single-wave or controlled plateau.
New deaths per fortnight
Shows the mortality wave peak, not just cumulative totals.
Epuyén / Argentina 2018–19 calibration
Observed benchmark plotted against a fitted base curve. This calibrates the “hidden clusters” and “missed-containment” logic, but does not force MV Hondius to follow Epuyén.
Calibration
Risk settings
These affect scenario magnitude and probability, not the real-data series.
Update real data
Enter real declared numbers manually or use the public scan. Manual data are always safer than automatic extraction.
Auto-update public scan
Calls the Cloudflare backend. It should not overwrite real data unless the scan is MV Hondius-specific and high-confidence.
/api/latest
Ready.
Real-data log
These points drive the probability history and reality-vs-scenario fit.